New announcement. Learn more

Blog Articles

GabrielleDowns SyndromeAnalysisStock intersectionsHealthFitnessEducation seminarEvsTeslaTaylor swiftPharmaHealth careExerciseNvidiaMillieAIRPAAgingJewelleryScam investmentInvestment fraudInvestment fraudsScamsCyclonesFloodingInsurance premiumsInvestment managerArtesianOrgans on a chipManaging household moneyCouplesTravel insuranceTravel cardTravelPlastic WasteStewartCollaborative engagementBest Ethical Financial AdviserAwardHuman skinCrash test dummyAkzo NobelBieresdorfUnileverThe 3 R'sAnimal crueltyAnimal testingSyndicated propertyWholesale investorBreast cancer, mammogramGender diversityDiversity40:40 vision30% clubFemale leadersOutlookIndicatorsRecessionFossil FuelsWomenChildrenCyberVisaMagellanDEIDiversity, equality and inclusionGHG emissionsNet ZeroNorway Oil FundEngagementActive EngagementWealth protectionPasswordsBank of mum and dadBank loansBull marketReparationsVolunteeringB-corpGarden festivalCompensationClimate changeBuilding portfolioPortfolioBusiness as a force for goodB corpFinologyNanukPlasticPackagingEsg investingFear of missing outConfirmation biasBehavioural financeRetirement villageEsg ratingsSustainableWalking the talkProxy votingVotingAwardsBear marketEthical preferencesIndependent informationGreenwashingNastiesGMODonationsMindful MoneyRIAAWarEthicsAuctionImpact InvestingCyber securitySustainable InvestingResponsible InvestingMarketTimingCoronavirusCovidAiaCignaEthical investingEsgEnvironmentActivePassiveEPAProperty Relationship ActTax returnWearable DeviceArtificial IntelligenceUnderwritingDNA TestingGenetic TestDe Minimis ExemptionFair Dividend TaxForeign Investment FundTax ratesKiwiSaver feesChinaBrightline TestEQCAdvice FeesInvestment feesJunk InsuranceWarrantiesConsumer Guarantees ActRetirement IncomeNew Zealand SuperannuationBridgesFitness CoachingWellnessSally MellorInvestment PropertyTenantLandlordRental PropertyCar RentalCar InsuranceRelationship BreakupProvisional TaxBeanyAccountingTrust DeedBeneficiaryTrust ActTrustSkin cancerProstate cancerMelanomaLung cancerCervical cancerCancer mythsFirst home buyerOpinionFactsSwindlerScamTreasuryVolatilityDollar cost averagingFamily trustsResearchMilfordInvestor confidenceFMAInvestment assumptionsTerm depositsKiwisaver monitoringKiwisaver comparisonStress freeHolidaySecurityBanksTax refundRiskReturnInvestingGreedFinance companiesContents insuranceOwing moneyCredit cardCredit cardsPropertyExpertsBubblesBorrowingLendingFloatFixMortgageLoansInterest ratesFinanceBrokingLegislationForeign superWordingOmbudsmanHouseCoverContentsBalanced fundSchooling costsEducationCredit ratingsTradingSecondary marketTerminologyFixed interest investmentFixed InterestLegalGuarantorUk pensionPension transferSpendingChristmasConsumer behaviourUK Pension TransfersQROPsInvesmtentWays to dieInsurance claimsWinz#residential care#assetsTrustsResidential care subsidy#residentialcaresubsidy#gifting#familytrustsSavingsLottery#bonusbondsSpecific injuryCase stuffyTrust expensesEstate planningAsset protection#trust#family Trust#incomeprotectioninsurance#incomeAdriennes storyQuizLife expectancyLVR ratioHouse depositBorrowing to buy a house#firsthomebuyerKiwisaver returns#kiwisaver feesReitrement savingsFirst home buyersUncategorized#financialplanningPersonal financesFinancial management#personalfinances#mortgages#finances#fidelity#kiwisaverperformance#redundancy insurance#incomeinsuranceRetirement ageJohn KeyFirst home buyer withdrawalKiwisaver rulesFirst home buyer grantUnclaimed moneyMoney refundsPortability superBringing home KiwiSaver#australia KiwiSaver#liability#insurance claim. Insurance claim#income insurance protectionFirst home grantDumb ways to dieUnder 18 years oldTax creditTrans-tasmanPortabilityAustraliaAsteronRisk profilesMoving funds#changing kiwisaver managersInvestment returnsTibTerminal illness benefit#claim#sil#kiwisaver analysis#shares#mighty river power#electricity#partners lifeTrusteeSafety of KiwiSaverFunBeerCredit ratingBad debtTax rebateInvestment advice#retirement planningLapseExpensesFighting fundEmergency cashRipping off elderlyFinancial planingPass backUnit pricingGareth morgan#Medical Assurance Society#MAS#investment analysis#travel insurance#insurance claimFinancial planningBudgettingReporting#insurance commissionInsurance commissions#commissions#career in insuranceSouthern crossClaimingInsurance excessesRussiaJohn clarkeHumourGfcCyprusHome insuranceEarthquakesCrisisStand down periodPolicy wordingChurningContributions holidayTaxesPayrollEmployer contributionsEsctEmployee contributionContribution holidaySil kiwisaver. westpacKwiisaverBitAsset allocationAsbAnzAwarenessReturnsPerformanceProstate canerWillsRelationship PropertyPlanningLegal AgreementsLawyersDivorcePremiumsTowerFund ManagersFisherKiwibankDefault schemesBnzAMPPetsPet insuranceMoney managementBudgetsHouse insuranceFire and general insuranceAccChilds trauma insuranceChilds traumaProtectionFund managerClaim trauma insuranceTotal and Permanent Disablement InsuranceOnePath LifeClaimsSmokingSmokers ratesInsurance researchInsurance analysisImageFree quotesSavingMoneyInfographicInflationVideoTpd insuranceTPDSovereignDisabilityCase StudyAxaHeart attackLoveIncome protectionCancer insuranceBreast cancerTerranovaMinimum wageEmployer contributionTraumaIncome protection insuranceCancerSortedRisk profileRetirementOnepathInvestmentsWestpacBTWho can joinRetirement savingsFuneral plannerFuneralDyingDeathTrauma insuranceLife InsuranceInsurance News & ViewsInsuranceIncome insuranceHealth insuranceDisability insuranceUS citizenRetiring to live in new zealandInvestmentFATCAReturning to new zealandRetiring in new zealandMember tax creditKickstartTransitional residentTaxationRetiring to new zealandNew migratnFifFdrDe minimisSuperannuationRetiringNZ superannuationNew zealandEligibility for NZ SuperMorningstarInvestment ReturnInvestment performanceFund sizeFeesTaxPIRPIEMoney News & ViewsIrdMinimum contributionKiwiSaver News & ViewsKiwiSaverContributions1 April 2013
TAGS

Mens Underwear and Lipstick - predictors of recessions

Recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle (unless you live in Australia which apparently deserves its 'lucky country' moniker - they haven't had a recession since 1991 - all those resources and banks...)

There are a wide number of indicators that fund managers, economists, Central Bankers look at to predict recessions, including real gross domestic product, income, employment, manufacturing, and retail sales. 

However, there are some more quirky indicators that people in the know look at.  Here are some of them and how they might indicate a recession.

Mens Underwear

This is a favourite of Alan Greenspan, but because 'the garment that is most private is male underpants, because nobody sees it except people in the locker room, and who cares? [Sales are usually stable] so on those few occasions where it dips, that means that men are so pinched that they are deciding not to replace underpants.'  The theory is that replacing mens underwear is the last thing that people will spend money on when money is tight, or people are worried about the future. There is indeed a mens underwear index which is based on the sales of undies.

Lipstick Indicator

Created by the Estee Lauder Chairman in 2001 when he noticed almost the opposite effect to the Mens Undies indicator.

Women tend to buy MORE lipstick during an economic downturn instead of more expensive items.  But, women also spend more on lipstick in boom times (but not during Covid when face masks were de riguer.

Other quirky indicators include (links included):

Skyscraper index (an increase in very tall buildings just before an economic bust)

Japanese Haircut Indicator (people spend less on haircuts when the economy is struggling)

First Date Indicator (significant increase in traffic on dating apps and websites when economy is not in good shape)



 

This product has been added to your cart

CHECKOUT